researchers at the Oxford University's Future of Humanity Institute << have carried out the largest-ever survey of machine learning experts on the subject >>
they << contacted 1,634 researchers who published papers at the 2015 NIPS and ICML conferences—the two leading machine learning conferences—and asked them to complete a survey on the topic, with 352 researchers responding >>
<< The aggregate forecast was that there is a 50 percent chance that 'unaided machines can accomplish every task better and more cheaply than human workers' within 45 years >>
Edd Gent. When Will AI Be Better Than Humans at Everything? 352 AI Experts Answer. Jul 25, 2017
<< Researchers believe there is a 50% chance of AI outperforming humans in all tasks in 45 years and of automating all human jobs in 120 years, with Asian respondents expecting these dates much sooner than North Americans >>
Katja Grace, John Salvatier, et al. When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts. arXiv:1705.08807 May 30, 2017
https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.08807
FonT
per mia opinione (di non esperto AI) se/quando il calcolo quantistico sara' fisicamente capillare e a basso costo come lo e' attualmente l'architettura x86, nel giro di 10-15 anni (anche prima) qualsiasi attivita' umana in qualsiasi distretto geografico del pianeta sara' riproducibile, a velocita', accuratezza, professionalita', fantasia sorprendentemente superiori e a costi quasi nulli, tendenti a zero.
Agli umani, per evitare gli usuali vortici autodistruttivi, servira' "l'adatta stringa" ...
http://flashontrack.blogspot.it/search?q=%22adatta+stringa%22
